Mobility could be transformed by 2035 with US car sales dropping as much as 30% compared to 2015 levels, and the share of passenger miles traveled in private cars dropping by 15%

According to data from McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, mobility could be transformed by 2035 through a rise in autonomous vehicles, the growth of micromobility, apps connecting people to multiple transportation modes, shared mobility, and government regulation. Private car sales in the U.S. could decline as much as 30% compared with 2015 levels as governments discourage private-vehicle use and consumers adopt new mobility options, the report says. "By 2035, the share of passenger miles traveled (PMT) in private cars will drop by about 15 percentage points," the report projects.

Private-vehicle use will vary considerably by region according to McKinsey, so car-reliant metro areas like Los Angeles where private-vehicle use was 89% of the mobility market in 2022 could fall by 51% by 2035. In rural areas, however, private-vehicle use will still dominate the mobility market, with McKinsey predicting their mobility share declining only slightly from 82% in 2022 to 80% in 2035.

Federal, state, and local policymakers increasingly support policies and programs that encourage the adoption of emerging transportation modes, from electric bikes to air taxis, and discourage private cars to boost road safety, reduce traffic congestion, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Under the 2021 Infrastructure law, Congress allocated more than $1.4 billion annually through 2026 for smaller-scale transportation projects such as pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. That's nearly double the $850 million Congress dedicated to such projects each year from 2018 to 2020.

The transition away from private vehicles may also result in land use benefits, as "private-car congestion does more than frustrate people. It also encourages developers to build garages and public officials to install more parking spaces, gobbling up scarce, valuable urban land that could otherwise be devoted to parks or other amenities," the report says.

Read more about how the report shows that private cars will remain the most popular transportation option, but their total mobility share will decline, on Smart Cities Dive.


Source: Smart Cities Dive